1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	324894	Free Radicals	Current	38	7.09	5.53	2.00
			Estimated	1,000	7.39	6.17	3.36

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Free Radicals, players take control of one of ten fully asymmetrical factions, each with its own path to earn resources, power, and the knowledge stored in the "Free Radicals", which are giant mysterious objects that appeared around the world, causing a huge evolutionary leap in technology. You might play as the merchants, using action points to travel to different markets, and grow in influence and efficiency; the Couriers, using your drones to pick up and deliver valuable goods; the Entertainers, using card placement and abilities to maximize powerful abilities; or one of seven other entirely unique factions! Players also interact through the main board, where they can visit each other's buildings and try to unlock the technology in one of the free radicals. You can even help your opponents' research in return for influence and other rewards! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/324894

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Free Radicals? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Free Radicals. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Free Radicals. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	324894	Free Radicals	1.00	5.53	7.09	3.36	38
1	2015	181797	Inhabit the Earth	0.85	6.09	6.95	3.17	1,159
2	2019	279254	Ecos: First Continent	0.83	6.56	7.18	2.60	3,145
3	2011	34871	Ventura	0.83	5.65	6.34	3.02	485
4	2014	137776	Praetor	0.82	5.95	6.56	3.00	1,348
5	2016	176371	Explorers of the North Sea	0.82	6.55	7.31	2.13	2,538
6	2020	271002	Myraclia	0.81	5.57	7.43	2.33	75
7	2019	240096	Moonshiners of the Apocalypse	0.79	5.47	5.56	2.14	153
8	2013	143515	Coal Baron	0.79	6.77	7.28	2.55	4,524
9	2014	157917	The Lord of the Ice Garden	0.78	6.31	7.64	4.06	1,188
10	2015	172308	Broom Service	0.77	6.88	7.17	2.41	8,993
11	2012	124881	Swordfish	0.77	5.53	5.89	2.88	187
12	2015	172206	Bomarzo	0.77	5.61	6.52	3.00	214
13	2011	103235	Singapore	0.76	5.62	6.13	2.60	401
14	2018	230570	Stellar Leap	0.76	5.55	6.71	2.50	79
15	2011	104020	Vanuatu	0.76	6.53	7.21	3.31	2,643
16	2012	118776	Tahiti	0.75	5.69	6.33	1.92	536
17	2016	17450	Argo	0.75	5.57	6.01	2.50	309
18	2006	21882	Blue Moon City	0.75	6.75	7.04	2.29	8,036
19	1999	54	Tikal	0.75	7.15	7.33	2.79	18,798
20	2017	237251	Biosphere	0.75	5.83	7.42	3.44	371
21	2015	163068	Trickerion: Legends of Illusion	0.74	7.48	7.95	4.22	8,176
22	2015	147206	Copper Country	0.74	5.63	6.79	2.71	222
23	2015	149119	Spirits of the Rice Paddy	0.74	5.92	6.72	3.08	931
24	2018	256250	The Waylanders	0.73	5.50	6.34	3.00	57
25	2016	178591	Lunarchitects	0.73	5.88	7.30	2.67	464

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Free Radicals while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	324894	Free Radicals	5.53	1.00	5.53	7.09	3.36	38
1	2015	163068	Trickerion: Legends of Illusion	5.56	0.74	7.48	7.95	4.22	8,176
2	2019	279254	Ecos: First Continent	5.47	0.83	6.56	7.18	2.60	3,145
3	2016	176371	Explorers of the North Sea	5.37	0.82	6.55	7.31	2.13	2,538
4	2010	62219	Dominant Species	5.36	0.70	7.61	7.83	4.04	19,076
5	1999	54	Tikal	5.35	0.75	7.15	7.33	2.79	18,798
6	2013	143515	Coal Baron	5.33	0.79	6.77	7.28	2.55	4,524
7	2015	172308	Broom Service	5.31	0.77	6.88	7.17	2.41	8,993
8	2015	181797	Inhabit the Earth	5.17	0.85	6.09	6.95	3.17	1,159
9	2006	21882	Blue Moon City	5.06	0.75	6.75	7.04	2.29	8,036
10	2016	196340	Yokohama	5.03	0.67	7.48	7.84	3.29	10,154
11	2013	137408	Amerigo	4.96	0.71	7.00	7.46	2.98	5,789
12	2011	104020	Vanuatu	4.94	0.76	6.53	7.21	3.31	2,643
13	2014	157917	The Lord of the Ice Garden	4.90	0.78	6.31	7.64	4.06	1,188
14	2014	137776	Praetor	4.88	0.82	5.95	6.56	3.00	1,348
15	2014	162082	Deus	4.75	0.68	6.97	7.30	2.85	8,028
16	2011	34871	Ventura	4.70	0.83	5.65	6.34	3.02	485
17	2011	106217	Hawaii	4.67	0.70	6.66	7.14	2.90	4,352
18	2017	163642	Chimera Station	4.66	0.71	6.54	7.30	3.15	2,448
19	1999	552	Bus	4.62	0.69	6.74	7.55	3.05	2,672
20	2020	293889	Fallout Shelter: The Board Game	4.62	0.72	6.44	7.31	2.04	2,017
21	2014	164338	The Golden Ages	4.53	0.70	6.49	7.27	2.89	2,244
22	2020	271002	Myraclia	4.52	0.81	5.57	7.43	2.33	75
23	2020	301255	Whistle Mountain	4.51	0.68	6.68	7.77	2.98	1,959
24	2015	154086	Gold West	4.50	0.68	6.63	7.34	2.46	2,761
25	2004	8989	Hansa	4.44	0.68	6.52	6.88	2.34	5,033

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	324894	Free Radicals	WizKids (I)	Nathan Woll	Tomasz Chistowski	Economic		Action Points
						Science Fiction		Action Queue
								Chaining
								Negotiation
								Open Drafting
								Pattern Building
								Pick-up and Deliver
								Tech Trees / Tech Tracks
								Tile Placement
								Variable Player Powers
								Worker Placement

Individual Game Analysis